Sovereign Gold Bonds: The Complete Guide to India's Greatest Tax-Free Investment
INDIA'S SOVEREIGN GOLD BONDS
A Decade of Promise, Policy, and
Performance
Covering: Policy Origins | All
67 Tranches | Taxation
| Returns |
Liquidity | Investor Suitability |
Global Comparisons
|
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
|
India's
Sovereign Gold Bond (SGB) scheme launched in November 2015 as the star
attraction of the government's Gold Monetisation Strategy. The idea was
elegant: channel India's unshakeable love for gold into a paper-based
alternative that would ease the current account deficit, mobilise idle
household wealth, and give ordinary investors a safer, smarter way to own
gold. Over nine financial years, 67 tranches were issued, raising Rs. 72,274
crore representing 146.96 tonnes of gold. The first batch, issued at Rs.
2,684 per gram in November 2015, matured in November 2023 at Rs. 6,132,
delivering a 128% tax-free capital gain. More breathtaking still, the SGB
2019-20 Series VIII, issued at Rs. 3,966 in January 2020, redeemed in January
2026 at Rs. 14,432, a jaw-dropping 264% capital gain that not a single rupee
of tax touched. Yet the government quietly pulled the plug after February
2024. As gold prices surged from Rs. 26,300 per 10 grams in 2015 to over Rs.
84,000 in 2025, the liability on outstanding SGBs swelled to Rs. 1.12 lakh
crore, making the scheme far costlier than conventional government borrowing.
This article tells the full story of SGBs: from a bold policy idea to a
wealth-creation phenomenon to an instrument the government could no longer
afford to offer. |
1. Historical
Background: The Genesis of a Golden Idea
1.1
India's Gold Paradox and Why the Government Had to Act
India has a gold problem,
and it is one that no government has ever fully solved. The country consumes
between 700 and 900 metric tonnes of gold every single year, driven by
weddings, festivals, ancestral tradition, and a deep-rooted belief that gold is
the only investment you can truly trust. Almost all of it is imported. In the
fiscal year 2012-13, those imports hit a record $56.5 billion, pushing the
current account deficit to a dangerous 4.8% of GDP. The rupee spiralled. The
government slapped emergency import duties and restrictions. Confidence took a
hit.
But here is the part that
really stings: none of that imported gold was being put to work. The Reserve
Bank of India's Technical Committee on Gold, chaired by K.U.B. Rao in 2013,
estimated that Indian households were sitting on 20,000 to 25,000 tonnes of
idle gold, worth approximately one trillion dollars. Just sitting there. In
lockers, in safes, under mattresses. Earning nothing. Contributing nothing. The
committee's conclusion was blunt: India needed a financial instrument that
could redirect even a fraction of this hoarding impulse into something
productive.
Finance Minister Arun
Jaitley answered that call in the Union Budget of February 2015. He announced
the Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme as the anchor of a three-pronged Gold
Monetisation Strategy, alongside the Revamped Gold Deposit Scheme and the Gold
Coin Programme. The Reserve Bank of India managed the first tranche in November
2015, distributing through scheduled commercial banks, the Stock Holding
Corporation of India, post offices, and recognised stock exchanges. India's
great gold experiment had begun.
1.2 What
the Scheme Was Actually Trying to Do
The SGB scheme carried a
dual mandate, and it is worth being clear about both. At the macro level, the
government wanted to reduce physical gold demand and therefore gold imports,
giving the current account deficit some breathing room. At the micro level, it
wanted to give retail savers, the kind of people who buy 10 grams of gold every
Dhanteras without fail, a better option than physical metal.
The scheme targeted four
specific policy goals. First, import substitution: make paper gold so
attractive through interest income and tax benefits that some marginal demand
for physical gold simply evaporates. Second, financial deepening: create a new
class of government securities that any Indian could buy for as little as one
gram. Third, fiscal diversification: use SGBs as an alternative to conventional
G-Secs in the government's debt programme. Fourth, gold monetisation: in the
long run, coax idle household gold back into the financial system through
deposit schemes, while SGBs capture fresh savings before they become more
imports.
The interest rate was set
at 2.75% per annum initially, later standardised at 2.50% from 2016-17 Series
III onward. That was not an accident. It was calibrated to be appealing enough
to attract investors without being so generous it blew a hole in the fiscal
plan. The 8-year maturity, with a premature exit window from year 5, was
designed to match how long typical Indian gold buyers actually think:
long-term, patient, and with a vague sense that gold always comes good
eventually.
1.3
Three Phases: Birth, Bloom, and Discontinuation
The scheme's arc falls
neatly into three chapters. The first was the Introductory Phase from 2015 to
2017, marked by modest beginnings and fast learning. That first November 2015
tranche raised a humble Rs. 246 crore, reflecting the novelty of the instrument
and a distribution network that had not yet hit its stride. The government
moved quickly. It expanded the distribution network and introduced a Rs. 50 per
gram discount for online and digital subscribers from Series III of 2016-17
onward, a smart move that tied financial incentives directly to the Digital
India push.
The Growth Phase from 2018
to 2023 saw subscriptions accelerate sharply as awareness grew, digital
infrastructure matured, and gold prices climbed steadily. The COVID-19 pandemic
was an unlikely catalyst. Investors turned risk-averse overnight, safe-haven
demand for gold spiked, and SGBs offered a compelling combination that physical
gold simply could not match: gold price exposure plus fixed interest plus
sovereign backing. FY 2023-24 became the scheme's peak year, mobilising Rs.
27,031 crore, more than four times what was raised the year before.
Then came the
Discontinuation Phase. The last tranche, SGB 2023-24 Series IV, closed in
February 2024. No new issuances followed. Union Budget 2025 made it official:
the government had no plans for further tranches. Economic Affairs Secretary
Ajay Seth articulated the arithmetic plainly. Gold had gone from Rs. 26,300 per
10 grams in 2015 to over Rs. 84,000 in early 2025. The government's liability
on outstanding SGBs had ballooned to Rs. 1.12 lakh crore. When conventional
G-Secs cost the government 7 to 7.5% annually, issuing bonds tied to an asset
that had appreciated at 15% per year made no fiscal sense anymore.
2. Issue
Details: Sixty-Seven Tranches and What They Tell Us
2.1 How
Each Tranche Was Structured
Every SGB tranche followed
a standard architecture that investors could rely on. The Reserve Bank would
announce a subscription window of approximately five working days. The issue
price was computed as the simple average of the closing price of 999-purity
gold published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association for the three
working days preceding the subscription week. Online applicants got a Rs. 50
per gram discount from 2016-17 onward, a small but psychologically effective
sweetener.
The maturity date sat
exactly eight years from the issue date. Premature exits were available from
the fifth anniversary onward through the RBI's buyback window, on specific
coupon payment dates. All bonds were listed on the BSE and NSE within roughly
two weeks of allotment, giving investors a secondary market option even before
year five.
Across nine financial
years from FY 2015-16 to FY 2023-24, the government ran 67 tranches in total,
raising Rs. 72,274 crore representing 146.96 tonnes of gold. Early years saw
only one or two tranches annually. By FY 2020-21 and FY 2021-22, the government
was running ten tranches a year, meeting a market that had well and truly
warmed to the instrument.
2.2
Representative Tranche Data: From Issue to Redemption
Table 1: Select SGB Tranches with Issue
Price, Maturity Date, and Capital Returns
|
Series |
Issue Date |
Issue Price
(/gm) |
Maturity
Date |
Redemption
Price |
Capital
Return |
|
SGB 2015-16 Series I |
Nov 2015 |
Rs.2,684 |
Nov 2023 |
Rs.6,132 |
+128.5% |
|
SGB 2015-16 Series II |
Feb 2016 |
Rs.2,600 |
Feb 2024 |
Rs.6,263 |
+140.9% |
|
SGB 2016-17 Series I |
Aug 2016 |
Rs.3,119 |
Aug 2024 |
Rs.7,325* |
+134.8% |
|
SGB 2016-17 Series II |
Sep 2016 |
Rs.2,957 |
Sep 2024 |
Rs.7,430* |
+151.3% |
|
SGB 2016-17 Series III |
Nov 2016 |
Rs.2,957 |
Nov 2024 |
Rs.7,500* |
+153.6% |
|
SGB 2017-18 Series I |
Feb 2017 |
Rs.2,893 |
Feb 2025 |
Rs.8,500* |
+193.8% |
|
SGB 2019-20 Series VIII |
Jan 2020 |
Rs.3,966 |
Jan 2026 |
Rs.14,432 |
+263.9% |
|
SGB 2020-21 Series I |
Apr 2020 |
Rs.4,590 |
Apr 2028 |
Ongoing |
Ongoing |
|
SGB 2021-22 Series I |
May 2021 |
Rs.4,777 |
May 2029 |
Ongoing |
Ongoing |
|
SGB 2022-23 Series I |
Jun 2022 |
Rs.5,091 |
Jun 2030 |
Ongoing |
Ongoing |
|
SGB 2023-24 Series I |
Jun 2023 |
Rs.5,926 |
Jun 2031 |
Ongoing |
Ongoing |
|
SGB 2023-24 Series IV |
Feb 2024 |
Rs.6,263 |
Feb 2032 |
Ongoing |
Ongoing |
* Estimated redemption prices for bonds
maturing in 2024-25 based on prevailing IBJA gold rates. Actual prices are
notified by RBI three working days before maturity. Source: RBI Press Releases,
IBJA, Business Standard.
The data in Table 1 tells
a story that every investor in these bonds has reason to feel good about. Every
single tranche that has reached maturity has delivered substantial positive
capital returns. Even the lowest performer, SGB 2015-16 Series I, handed
investors 128.5% in capital appreciation over eight years, a capital CAGR of
roughly 11%, before you even count the 2.50 to 2.75% annual interest.
The standout is SGB
2019-20 Series VIII, issued in January 2020 at Rs. 3,966 per gram and redeemed
in January 2026 at Rs. 14,432. That is an absolute capital return of 263.9% in six years. Annualised, that is a
capital CAGR of roughly 24%. Add in six years of interest at 2.5% per annum on
the issue price, approximately Rs. 595 per gram in cumulative interest
payments, and the total absolute return crosses 279%. Not one rupee of capital
gain was taxable for original subscribers. That is the SGB story in one tranche.
2.3
Year-Wise Subscription Trends
Table 2: Year-Wise SGB Subscription
Summary (FY 2015-16 to FY 2024-25)
|
Financial
Year |
Tranches |
Amount
Raised (Rs. Cr.) |
Gold
(Tonnes) |
Notable
Context |
|
2015-16 |
1 |
~246 |
~0.92 |
Pilot year; limited
distribution network |
|
2016-17 |
4 |
~1,500 |
~5.0 |
Digital discount introduced;
growing awareness |
|
2017-18 |
6 |
~3,200 |
~10.0 |
Expanded to stock exchanges;
retail interest rises |
|
2018-19 |
6 |
~3,700 |
~11.0 |
Mainstream retail
participation grows |
|
2019-20 |
9 |
~6,700 |
~18.0 |
Pre-COVID demand surge;
safe-haven appeal builds |
|
2020-21 |
10 |
~16,000 |
~38.0 |
COVID-19 peaks demand;
record subscriptions |
|
2021-22 |
10 |
~12,000 |
~27.0 |
Post-COVID normalisation;
still strong interest |
|
2022-23 |
4 |
~6,550 |
~14.0 |
Fewer tranches; rising
interest rates dampen appetite |
|
2023-24 |
4 |
~27,031 |
~43.0 |
Highest ever FY
mobilisation; gold at multi-year peaks |
|
2024-25 |
0 |
Nil |
Nil |
Scheme discontinued; no
fresh issuances announced |
Source: RBI, Ministry of Finance, Lok
Sabha Q&A response by Minister Pankaj Chaudhary, 2025.
3. Taxation and
Returns: Where SGBs Truly Shine
3.1 The
Three-Part Tax Framework
For most of their
existence, Sovereign Gold Bonds offered one of the most tax-efficient
investment structures in the Indian market. Understanding the full picture
requires separating three distinct components: interest income, capital gains
on primary market redemption, and capital gains from secondary market
transactions.
Interest income of 2.50%
per annum was fully taxable at the investor's applicable income-tax slab rate.
No Tax Deducted at Source applied, so investors were responsible for declaring
and paying the tax themselves. That is the only real tax bite in the SGB
structure for patient, long-term holders.
Capital gains on
redemption by original subscribers at maturity were fully exempt from tax for
individual investors under Section 47(viic) of the Income Tax Act, 1961. This
exemption was absolute. Whether gold went up 50% or 300% over eight years, the
capital gain was nil for tax purposes for qualifying individuals. The same
exemption applied to premature redemption via the RBI's buyback window after
year five. Only secondary market exits through the BSE or NSE attracted capital
gains tax in the conventional sense.
3.2
Budget 2026: The Rule Change That Rattled Markets
Union Budget 2026
introduced a change that the secondary market felt immediately and painfully.
The capital gains tax exemption would henceforth apply only to investors who
purchased the SGB during the primary subscription window and held it
continuously to its 8-year maturity. Investors who bought SGBs from the stock
exchange, even if they then held those bonds until the final redemption date,
would no longer qualify for the exemption.
The market reaction was
swift. Several SGB series listed on exchanges recorded intraday price drops of
10% on the Budget day itself. The tax arbitrage that had made secondary market
SGB purchases attractive, buy near maturity, collect the tax-free redemption,
had just been closed. The policy intent is understandable; the benefit was
designed for those who backed the scheme from the start, not for those who were
simply harvesting a tax loophole. But the abruptness of the change left
secondary market investors nursing losses.
3.3 How
SGBs Stack Up Against Physical Gold and Gold ETFs
Table 3: Comprehensive Tax and Cost
Comparison Across Gold Investment Instruments
|
Tax / Cost
Parameter |
Sovereign
Gold Bond |
Physical
Gold (Jewellery) |
Gold ETF /
Fund of Fund |
|
Interest Income |
Taxable at slab rate; no TDS
deducted |
No interest income |
No interest income |
|
Capital Gains at Maturity
(Original Buyers) |
Fully EXEMPT for individuals |
LTCG at 20% with indexation
(over 3 yrs) |
20% LTCG with indexation
(over 3 yrs) |
|
Capital Gains via
Secondary Market |
STCG at slab (under 3 yrs);
LTCG at 20% (over 3 yrs) |
STCG at slab; LTCG at 20% |
STCG at slab; LTCG at 20% |
|
Budget 2026 Change |
CGT exemption restricted to
original subscribers only |
No change |
No change |
|
Wealth Tax |
Not applicable |
Applicable on physical
holdings |
Not applicable |
|
GST and Making Charges |
None |
3% GST plus making charges
(10 to 25%) |
None (0.01% fund expenses) |
|
Purity and Storage Risk |
Zero; sovereign guarantee
covers everything |
Purity risk; storage and
insurance costs |
Purity guaranteed; custody
charges apply |
Source: Income Tax Act, 1961; Finance Act
2026; SEBI regulations; author analysis.
3.4
Three Investors, One Starting Point, Very Different Endings
Numbers mean more when
they are attached to real investor situations. Consider three people who each
invested Rs. 5 lakh in gold in January 2020, choosing different routes to the
same underlying asset.
Investor A put her money
into SGB 2019-20 Series VIII at Rs. 3,966 per gram, buying roughly 126 grams.
Over six years she received cumulative interest of approximately Rs. 595 per
gram on the issue price, totalling around Rs. 75,000 gross. After tax at a 30%
slab rate, her net interest receipt was approximately Rs. 52,500. Her bonds
matured at Rs. 14,432 per gram in January 2026. Redemption proceeds: 126 grams
multiplied by Rs. 14,432 equals Rs. 18.18 lakh. Capital gain: Rs. 13.18 lakh.
Tax on that gain: zero. Total after-tax corpus: approximately Rs. 18.71 lakh on
a Rs. 5 lakh investment.
Investor B bought physical
gold jewellery at the equivalent price. After accounting for 10% making
charges, he effectively paid Rs. 4,363 per gram, buying around 115 grams. By
January 2026, his gold was worth Rs. 16.60 lakh at market price, but a 2 to 5%
dealer discount on resale brings net proceeds to roughly Rs. 15.75 lakh. The
capital gain of Rs. 10.75 lakh attracted LTCG tax at 20% with indexation,
leaving a tax bill of around Rs. 1.50 lakh. He earned no interest over the six
years. Total after-tax corpus: approximately Rs. 14.25 lakh.
Investor C went with a
Gold ETF at equivalent pricing. Expense ratios of roughly 0.5% per year
(cumulative impact approximately 3%) trimmed her corpus slightly, leaving
holdings worth around Rs. 17.63 lakh. The LTCG after indexation came to roughly
Rs. 8.50 lakh, attracting tax of Rs. 1.70 lakh. No interest income. Total
after-tax corpus: approximately Rs. 15.93 lakh.
The tax-exempt capital gain on SGB
redemption, combined with 2.5% annual interest, gave the SGB investor a Rs. 3
to 4 lakh edge over equivalent Gold ETF and physical gold investors over the
same six years.
4. Market
Performance and Liquidity: The Secondary Market Story
4.1
Listed but Barely Traded
All SGB tranches are
listed on both the BSE and NSE within approximately two weeks of allotment.
Minimum lot size is one unit, which equals one gram. In theory, this gives
investors a clean exit option at any point. In practice, the secondary market
for most SGB series is thin, sometimes painfully so, and this is one of the
most consistently valid criticisms of the scheme.
The illiquidity problem
comes from a structural reality: the investor base is predominantly retail and
long-term oriented. Most SGB buyers hold for the capital gains tax exemption at
maturity. They have little reason to sell early, which suppresses supply.
Institutional market-makers, who provide depth in the G-Sec market through
primary dealers, are largely absent from SGB secondary trading. And awareness
about the fact that listed SGBs can even be traded remains low among retail
investors who bought them and put the certificate in a drawer.
Daily trading volumes for
most SGB series on the NSE hover between Rs. 10 lakh and Rs. 2 crore. Even
series near maturity, which see the most secondary activity, rarely exceed Rs.
10 to 15 crore on peak days. Compare that with Gold BeES, India's largest gold
ETF, which routinely trades Rs. 50 to 100 crore daily. The practical
consequence for an SGB investor who needs to exit before year five: expect
bid-ask spreads of 1 to 3% and meaningful price impact costs on any sizeable
transaction.
4.2 When
SGBs Trade at a Premium or Discount to Spot Gold
One of the more
analytically interesting aspects of SGB secondary market behaviour is the gap
between the traded price and the IBJA spot gold price on any given day. This
gap can run in either direction, and understanding why matters for both buyers
and sellers.
Premium scenarios arise
when SGBs trade above spot gold. This happens when the market is pricing in the
accrued interest benefit for the holding period, or when buyers are assigning
value to the tax exemption at maturity. Before Budget 2026, secondary market
buyers who believed they could access the capital gains exemption at redemption
were willing to pay above spot to acquire SGBs near maturity.
Discount scenarios are
historically more common. Buyers demand a liquidity premium for holding an
illiquid instrument, typically 1 to 5% below spot, depending on time remaining
to maturity and prevailing market conditions. Bonds with four to six years left
generally trade at the deepest discounts. Those within a year or two of
maturity, or approaching the year-five exit window, tend to trade much closer
to spot.
Budget 2026's restriction
on secondary market buyers triggered an immediate repricing. Several SGB series
fell 8 to 12% on announcement day. The tax arbitrage was gone.
Post-announcement, secondary market SGBs have largely settled at modest
discounts to IBJA spot gold, reflecting nothing more complicated than the
liquidity risk premium that any illiquid instrument carries.
4.3 The
Government's Role and the Fiscal Bind
The RBI does not act as a
market-maker in SGB secondary trading. Its role is limited to managing the
year-five-onward redemption windows and the final maturity settlement. The
redemption price for both early and final exits through the RBI is the simple average
of the IBJA closing price for 999-purity gold over the five preceding working
days. It is transparent, rule-based, and manipulation-proof.
But this structure means
the government carries the full gold price risk on its liability side. Every
time gold prices rise, the government owes more. When gold prices doubled and
then tripled between 2015 and 2025, the outstanding SGB liability grew in lockstep.
By early 2025, as Minister Pankaj Chaudhary confirmed to Parliament, that
liability stood at Rs. 1.12 lakh crore. It is this asymmetric exposure, where
the government earns a fixed coupon on conventional G-Secs but owes a
gold-price-linked redemption on SGBs, that ultimately made the scheme fiscally
unsustainable.
5. The Investor
Perspective: Who Won, Who Should Be Cautious, and Who Should Look Elsewhere
5.1 The
Case For: Three Genuine Advantages
From where an investor
sits, Sovereign Gold Bonds offered something genuinely rare: a combination of
advantages that no single alternative could replicate. Start with the most
obvious. SGBs delivered gold price appreciation plus a fixed 2.5% annual interest
on the issue price. Physical gold and gold ETFs give you only the price
appreciation. The interest component on a four-kilogram investment at an
average issue price of Rs. 5,000 per gram works out to Rs. 5 lakh in annual
interest income. That is not trivial, and it compounds the total return
advantage considerably.
Then there is the capital
gains tax exemption at maturity for original subscribers, which is genuinely
extraordinary by Indian investment standards. In a market where almost every
productive asset class attracts some form of capital gains tax, an instrument
that offers unlimited tax-free appreciation backed by the sovereign is
remarkable. This single feature made SGBs superior to gold ETFs and physical
gold on an after-tax basis even before you account for the interest income.
Third, SGBs eliminate
every cost and risk that comes with owning physical gold: making charges of 10
to 25%, purity uncertainty, storage costs, insurance, and the inconvenience of
converting jewellery to cash at fair value. An SGB is a demat entry. It does
not deteriorate, cannot be stolen in a conventional sense, and travels with the
investor seamlessly. It can also be pledged as collateral for loans at standard
loan-to-value ratios applicable to gold.
5.2 The
Case Against: Four Risks Worth Taking Seriously
For all their advantages,
SGBs carry risks that retail investors consistently underestimate. The most
fundamental is gold price risk itself. If gold prices fall significantly over
the 8-year holding period, the capital value of the investment declines, and a
2.5% annual interest cushion cannot fully offset a large price correction. This
is not a theoretical concern. Gold spent years range-bound or declining in real
terms through the 1980s and 1990s. Investors who buy at elevated prices, as
many did during COVID-era peaks, carry material downside risk.
The second risk is
illiquidity. As discussed in Section 4, secondary market volumes are thin. An
investor who needs capital urgently before year five may have to accept a
below-fair-value exit. The RBI's early redemption window exists, but it only
opens on specific coupon payment dates, not on demand. Timing that exit
precisely requires planning that many retail investors simply do not do.
The third risk is policy
risk, and Budget 2026 made this concrete. The capital gains exemption that made
SGBs exceptional was modified without warning. Long-duration investments in
tax-advantaged instruments always carry the possibility that the advantage is
narrowed or eliminated during the holding period. Investors in any future
gold-linked sovereign instrument would be wise to assume the tax treatment is
not immutable.
The fourth risk is
opportunity cost. Eight years is a long time. Nifty 50 has generated CAGRs of
12 to 15% over most 8-year rolling periods in India, higher than gold on
average, though with considerably more volatility and a less favourable tax
treatment. For investors with genuine equity risk appetite and a long horizon,
locking capital in SGBs at issue price for eight years carries a real
opportunity cost that deserves honest acknowledgment.
5.3 A
Suitability Matrix: Who Should Own SGBs
Table 4: SGB Suitability by Investor
Profile
|
Investor
Profile |
Safety Score |
Return
Potential |
Liquidity
Need |
SGB
Suitability |
|
Conservative / Retirees |
Very High |
Medium |
Low |
Strong fit. Regular interest
income plus sovereign safety ticks every box. |
|
Salaried Middle Class |
High |
Medium |
Medium |
Strong fit. Tax-free
maturity gain plus savings discipline is a powerful combination. |
|
High Net-Worth
Individuals |
High |
High |
Low-Medium |
Moderate fit. The 4 kg
annual cap limits scale but the tax benefit is real. |
|
Trusts and Institutions |
High |
High |
Low-Medium |
Strong fit. 20 kg annual
limit with sovereign-grade safety is attractive. |
|
Short-Term Traders |
Medium |
Very Low |
Very High |
Poor fit. Thin secondary
volumes make quick exits painful and costly. |
|
Young Investors (20s to
30s) |
High |
High |
Medium |
Strong fit. An 8-year
horizon aligns perfectly with long-term wealth creation goals. |
|
NRIs |
Not Eligible |
N/A |
N/A |
Not eligible. SGBs are
restricted to resident Indian individuals only. |
Source: Author analysis based on SGB
scheme terms, tax provisions, and investor profile characteristics.
6. Future
Outlook: After the Scheme Ends, What Comes Next?
6.1 Why
the Government Called Time on New Issuances
The discontinuation of new
SGB issuances after February 2024 was fiscally rational, even if it
disappointed millions of investors who had come to rely on the annual tranche
calendar. When the RBI's conventional G-Sec programme raises money at 7 to 7.5%
per annum, issuing bonds tied to an asset appreciating at 15% per year is
economic charity. The combined implicit cost of gold appreciation plus the 2.5%
interest coupon made SGBs among the most expensive borrowing instruments
available to the Indian government.
From a macro policy
perspective, the discontinuation also reflects an implicit admission that SGBs
did not dent gold import demand in any meaningful way. India's gold imports in
FY 2023-24 stood at approximately $45 billion, barely lower than pre-SGB levels.
The government's simultaneous move in July 2024 to cut import duties on gold
from 15% to 6% sent a clear signal: it had shifted from using paper substitutes
to stimulate demand management, toward directly reducing the cost of physical
gold imports. A different policy bet, not necessarily a better one, but a
different one.
The outstanding SGB
universe, representing 130 tonnes worth Rs. 1.12 lakh crore, will continue to
mature in tranches through 2032. Managing that liability through a period of
structurally elevated global gold prices will require careful fiscal management.
Analysts estimate the government's total interest plus principal liability on
all outstanding SGBs at Rs. 1.3 to 1.5 lakh crore by the time the last bond
matures.
6.2 What
This Means for the Millions Who Already Own SGBs
For existing SGB holders,
the story is far from over. In fact, many would argue the best part is still
ahead. With gold prices having risen from Rs. 2,684 per gram (the first SGB
issue price) to over Rs. 9,000 per gram by early 2026, existing holders are
sitting on unrealised gains of 200 to 300% or more on their original
investments. These gains will be redeemable tax-free at maturity for original
primary market subscribers, creating what will likely be one of the most
significant episodes of retail wealth creation in post-liberalisation Indian
financial history.
Practically speaking,
existing investors should note four things. First, the 2.5% annual interest
continues to flow uninterrupted through the maturity date. Second, the capital
gains exemption for primary subscribers at maturity has not been changed. Third,
premature redemption windows continue to open on coupon payment dates from year
five onward. Fourth, secondary market trading remains available on BSE and NSE,
though with thin volumes and reduced tax attractiveness after Budget 2026.
6.3
Could SGBs Come Back? What a Reformed Scheme Might Look Like
The SGB scheme left behind
a strong institutional framework and a genuinely engaged investor base. Several
structural reforms could make a future version fiscally sustainable. A
gold-price hedging mechanism, using RBI's foreign exchange reserves or commodity
derivatives, could neutralise the liability mismatch that killed the current
scheme. Shorter-duration variants of three to five years rather than eight,
with commensurately reduced interest rates, would lower the cumulative fiscal
cost while keeping investors interested. A floating interest component tied to
real gold yields would let the cost to the government adjust dynamically with
market conditions rather than being fixed against an appreciating asset.
Any future scheme will
need to answer the question the current one could not: how do you make paper
gold attractive enough to substitute meaningfully for physical demand, while
keeping the fiscal cost within bounds that make sense for a government running
a large borrowing programme? India has not solved that problem yet.
6.4 How
India Compares Globally
Table 5: Comparable Gold-Linked Sovereign
Instruments Worldwide
|
Country |
Instrument |
Launched |
Tenure |
Fixed Return |
Tax
Treatment |
|
India |
Sovereign Gold Bond (SGB) |
2015 to 2024 |
8 years |
2.50% p.a. |
Capital gains exempt at
maturity for primary subscribers |
|
USA |
Gold ETFs (GLD, IAU) |
2004 onward |
Open-ended |
None |
LTCG taxed at 28%
collectibles rate |
|
UK |
Royal Mint Gold Bonds |
2016 onward |
3 years |
Yield varies |
CGT exempt up to 6,000 GBP
annual allowance |
|
China |
Shanghai Gold Exchange Plans |
Ongoing |
Flexible |
None |
Subject to standard income
tax rules |
|
Japan |
Gold Savings Accounts |
Various |
Flexible |
None |
Taxed as miscellaneous
income |
|
Turkey |
Gold-backed Sukuk and Bonds |
2017 onward |
Various |
Market-linked |
Subject to withholding tax |
Source: Royal Mint UK, US Treasury,
Shanghai Gold Exchange, Turkish Treasury, author research.
What separates India's SGB
scheme from every comparable global instrument is the scale of its ambition and
the generosity of its tax treatment. No other sovereign gold-linked instrument
anywhere in the world offered complete capital gains tax exemption to retail
investors holding to maturity. The UK's Royal Mint scheme is modest in scale.
US gold ETFs carry a punishing 28% collectibles rate. China's gold savings
plans attract standard income tax. India's SGB was genuinely exceptional. Its
successor, whenever it arrives, will build on those foundations and must find
smarter ways to manage the liability side of what is a structurally sound
policy concept.
|
CONCLUSION: THE GOLDEN VERDICT |
|
India's
Sovereign Gold Bond scheme occupies a unique and instructive place in the
story of modern Indian public finance. It succeeded brilliantly for
investors, delivering sovereign-guaranteed gold returns, tax-free capital
appreciation, and fixed income in a single low-cost instrument, while falling
short of its macro-economic objectives of meaningfully curbing gold imports.
The government's decision to stop new issuances was economically rational,
but the instrument it built demonstrated something important: retail India is
ready for sophisticated, long-duration financial products linked to real
assets, provided they are priced fairly and explained clearly. For the
millions of Indians holding SGBs today, the message is straightforward: stay
the course. The tax-free capital appreciation locked within existing bonds
represents one of the most compelling wealth-creation opportunities in Indian
retail investing history. The next evolution of gold-linked sovereign
instruments will need to be fiscally smarter, but it will build on the SGB's
considerable institutional and psychological foundation. In a world where
safe, real-asset-linked, tax-efficient, long-term instruments are
increasingly rare, the Sovereign Gold Bond was, for nine remarkable years,
India's golden answer. |
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